I learned long ago – in the first of my now 38 years in the markets – that the Federal Reserve controls absolutely nothing.
It doesn’t control the amount of credit in the economy. It doesn’t control the supply of money. And most importantly, it does not, never has and never will control interest rates.
The people, the free markets, control ALL of the above and more. All the Fed can do or hope for is to follow the free markets and hope some participants believe in the power of the Fed.
The same applies to every central bank on the planet. The only key exceptions, and even there it’s doubtful how much control they have, are the central banks of communist countries, like China.
You may not believe me and even passionately disagree with me. But I have studied practically every central bank interest rate decision ever made in this country and every single one of them came after rates had already moved higher or lower in the free markets.
Put another way, the fed follows the markets. The markets do not – and never have – followed the Fed. Only fools follow the Fed.
And most importantly, the Fed has never changed the major trend of any market. It cannot turn a bear market into a bull market, and vice versa. Only the people can do that. Only the free market forces, which you’ve come to know through my work, have their own unique cycles and waves.
Can a central bank temporarily interrupt a trend, or cause wild market swings? Sure. Happens a lot. But a central bank cannot and never has changed the major underlying trend.
Forgive me for rambling a bit, but since the entire world now seems focused on today and tomorrow’s Fed meeting, and every word and breath that will be spoken about it at its press conference at 2pm EST tomorrow …
I thought I’d just spout my experience with central banks and help you focus on the major trends right now …
Which per my AI models, remains down into early October.
Indeed, both gold and silver are on the edge of a cliff. If there’s another bounce due to Fed jawboning, that’s all it will be, a bounce. If the AI models are correct – and I believe they are – gold, silver and a whole bunch of other markets will slide into October, either from current levels or slightly higher.
Hold all positions and related stops and stay tuned …
Best wishes,
Larry
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