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Back in late September/early October 2011 — just after I told everyone gold had topped out at $1,925 — I also told everyone I could to get the heck out of mining shares.
I sure hope you listened. If you think the losses in gold or silver have been bad, the losses in mining shares are catastrophic.
Just this month, the main indexes tracking metals miners has plunged more than 20%, roughly triple the loss in gold.
The NYSE Arca Gold Bugs index (HUI) has lost nearly 23% month to date while the Philadelphia Gold and Silver index (XAU) has plunged over 21%.
Giant Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) is down about 20% this month, 74.8% since its high in November 2011.
Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) is down a whopping 31% this month, 87.4% since its high in August 2011.
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM) is down more than 17%, 74.4% since its high in December 2010.
It’s no surprise to me, or to those who listened to me. But what’s probably going to surprise you now is — mark my words — the devastation in the mining sector is not yet over.
First, gold is headed still lower. Silver too and other precious metals. Sure, there will soon be a bounce. But don’t let that fool you. Precious metals will not bottom till gold falls below $1,000 an ounce.
Second, hardly any miners, even the best of them, saw this precious metal bear market coming. Worse, many of them were, and still are, in denial.
As a result, there are very few miners who have taken the steps to protect themselves. Barrick Gold, perhaps the worst of them, got rid of gold hedging at just about the worst time it could have. The time to hedge is when prices are high and about to start falling. Barrick did the opposite; it closed its hedges in September 2009.
Instead, it should have dumped its hedges way back in 2000 and looked to implement hedging in 2011. But it got its timing woefully wrong.
As a result, the company has taken huge losses on its reserves and production. This is not atypical. There are dozens of miners who were similarly caught off guard or poorly advised.
Third, the cost of production is still too high. At an industry average of roughly $920 an ounce for “all-in-sustaining costs” — which includes all costs that are incurred in order to sustain gold production at a given established level.
The industry is clearly seeing a massive profit margin squeeze. Thing is, it will get far worse as gold falls further, to near the cost of production or just below it.
The good news is this: Once the mining sector finally does bottom, vast fortunes will be made by savvy investors who scoop up shares in the strong survivors. But you’ll have to be very selective.
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The comments just keep flowing in from readers, and we had some really good ones. Here are a few highlights:
Reader David asks:
“Larry, I see the Gold and Silver markets falling handily at this moment. You state that the metals will soon have an uptick and then downward further with gold under 1K, and silver to follow. While I know you can’t put a date on the above, can you perhaps elaborate what sort of time frame we are looking at before you suggest buying physicals with both hands?”
My response: November of this year is shaping up to be an important time period for a major low.
Reader Fran writes:
“Hi Larry, I listened to your 3 day interview and recommended it to family and friends. My question is as a 72 yr. old handicapped female living on social security and fighting bankruptcy, what do seniors or anyone in my situation do in the up and coming future?”
My response: Save as much as you can. And keep that money safe in a treasury-bill backed money market. Stay completely out of bonds.
Reader David writes:
“You say the U.S. market will be the refuge for money escaping the EU and Japan. Why not China instead, as refuge since you say it is such a powerhouse? Also would still like your opinion on whether brokerage accounts (like Schwab) might be safer than banks.”
My response: China, and Asia in general, will be a recipient of the flight capital (ex Japan). So yes, long-term I expect China and Asia to do just fine. As to brokers, yes, many will be safer than banks. Just make sure you do not sign any agreements or clauses letting your broker hypothecate (borrow) against your funds for their own use.
Reader Evan writes:
“With all the uncertainty in the markets, I have invested in bonds, treasury money market and certificates of deposit. I would like to know whether I am at risk of government confiscation, and what I should be doing with this capital to ensure its safety?”
My response: Get out of bonds. They are not only at risk of falling substantially, they are at risk of indirect confiscation, meaning at some point, Washington could insist you hold them. Treasury bill money market and CDs are fine for now.
Reader Barbara writes:
“1) Is it wise to own a home free and clear or should one keep a substantial mortgage in effect so the government won’t steal it from them?
2) Why haven’t you mentioned the “one world currency” in a long time? If the Euro countries, flight capital and Japan run to the U.S. $ for safety after they implode, where should we run to when the U.S. follows suit? There won’t be a U.S. currency to run to.”
My response: Depending upon your age and your income prospects, actually, the smart thing to do is to borrow as much money as you can against your home, for the reason you cited, but also because mortgage rates will never again be this low in your lifetime, and as long as you are judicious with those funds, you can get returns elsewhere.
From Reader Karey:
“In connection to China, why have they and India been stockpiling gold? Are they doing this for fun or do they also realize that through QE’s all the paper that has been printed is soon to be a doomsday device? Why would the Swiss after they dumped the euro move their gold from London to home?”
My response: They are not doing it for fun and they are not doing it to back their currencies with gold. They are simply investing for the long haul and diversifying their reserves. As to the Swiss, they are moving further and further away from gold. Moving gold closer to home is merely A. to save on storage fees and/or B. to get ready to sell it off.
Stay tuned and best wishes,
Larry
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U.S. jobless claims are at their lowest in 42 years, says the U.S. Labor Department. The 255,000 unemployment claims filed in July were down 26,000, the fewest since November of 1973.
Greece likely has a bailout and a recession on the way. The country’s most influential think tank, IOBE, reversed its April predictions of a 1.0 percent economic growth and said capital controls and the three-week banking holiday would result in a retrenchment of the economy 2.0-2.5 percent throughout the remainder of the year.
Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter is visiting Iraq today, assisting American and Iraqi forces in planning to take back the Iraqi city of Ramadi from the Islamic State. The loss of the Anbar province capital two months ago was the worst defeat for Iraq’s army since ISIS began its invasion of northern Iraq last summer.
A suspected meth lab blew up at the National Institute of Standards & Technology, a federal research center near Washington, D.C. last week. Congress is investigating, with Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas) commenting, “I am troubled by the allegations that such dangerous and illicit activity went undetected at a federal research facility.”
What are your thoughts on the news? Does Congress have a Breaking Bad situation on their hands? Will Greece ever get it together? And do the unemployment claims tell the full economic story?
John Caldwell July 26, 2015
Is there any correlation between inflation and deflation and precious metals (gold silver and platinum). I would expect interest rates to move up. If they don’t, the alternative will be a lot worse. Greece and others. The government must pay their bills and I don’t see much of importance happening in the Congress in the next two years. It will be left to the Fed and that means interest rates and inflation. Then what happens to the precious metals.
Mike June 4, 2016
They go up.
William Bosse July 25, 2015
Have been trying to take up Larry on his Super Cycle Trader extension offer but the web site is not cooperating. Pressing the “submit” button produces an Error 404 (Page Not Found)
Ray July 25, 2015
It’s your computer.
PETER July 25, 2015
Larry,
One thing I haven’t read on your site or any othr site for that matter is how France is controlling the exit of the Euro from France.
I live in Quebec, Canada and a lot of Europeans have been investing in realestate here. The French are particularily interested in Quebec because of our use of the French language. I’ll make it short.
For several years now, when a French national makes an offer on a property our notaries or lawyers will tell us , don’t get your hopes up becasue the French have trouble exiting large sumes of money from France. I experienced this first hand with a French citizen who was supposed to buy a property from me. Finally I had my lawyer send him a letter stating the deal was off if he didn’t close on the property in the next ten days (this was after a six months delay). My lady friend experienced the same thing with a French couple that wanted to buy her house, our next door neighbour experienced the same thing last week with a French couple and I have several other second hand information with other people who have had real estate deals fall through becasue the French citizens could not get their money out of France.
Is the exit of the Euro being controlled by beueaucracy or is there subtle controlls being put in place?
I just thought I’d pass it along becasue I haven’t read about it anywhere. Don’t take my word for it, contact any notary in Quebec and they will tell you … becareful of your plans, especially with people from France. The people are nice but …. the money isn’t forth coming!
Peter
scotti July 25, 2015
Gee Larry, why did you remove my post about your recommendations to buy IAG and JNUG, and that g & s were about to skyrocket?
Ray July 25, 2015
Your claim is bizarre.
Yuan July 25, 2015
Hi Larry
I have a fair bit of Australian banking stocks and just wondering if I should continue to hold them or sell them?
Regards
Yuan
Ray July 25, 2015
I think you’re in the wrong blog Yuan, we talk about gold here not bank stocks.
Yuan July 25, 2015
Hi Larry
I have a fair bit of Australian bank stocks and wondering if I should continue to hold them?
Regards
Yuan
richard July 25, 2015
First, thank you for your recommendation to the general public. People purchase gold and coins for safety purpose—to escape death taxes, to give to others freely anytime,, and to have a peace of mind in case of war, or other unexpected needs. Any family suffered thru war can tell you to carry these items in order to exchange for water, food and sleeping quarters. Well, there are some just to buy gold to give to their secret lovers lololol..Lastly, there are real rich ones made toilet seat with gold too! , They buy gold for show off purpose. enough, more?—–lolol. these are benefits of untold values for having GOLD .right?
Ray July 25, 2015
Don’t forget door stopper and paper weights 🙂
Bob July 25, 2015
Precious metals have been devastated in the paper market. Yet demand for physical gold continues. While others are selling the wily Chinese are buying all they can get their hands on. While the insanity of qe flourishes around the world adding to the global debt bubble there is hope for gold. However it is true that past management of some of the gold producers has been bad to the point of being imbecilic. I have seen this first hand.
Tom S. July 24, 2015
Cont’d ( your space did not ALLOW me to add one more line )
I have a 4th choice, that is definitely NOT AN OPTION and that is ride it to the bottom w/o selling anything & hope it recovers & profits. Because for a 50% loss, it takes a 100% increase to recover the loss, & 75% loss-a 300% gain, & 90% loss requires a 900% gain w/ only a small paltry leftover funds. BE WARNED ! ! ——– My 3 options are ( I think ):
I think it’s better to wait 24 hrs to state & rethink my 3 options
Tom Suyetsugu July 24, 2015
hey Larry:
Could you use my CASE example for discussion in your reader group. It’s about the precious metals bear market & how not keeping up w/ your computer could cost you a lot..
One week ago my losses were tolerable ( ~ 15 – 20% ). I invaders comments Plus yoursested ~ $20 G on 2 mutual funds ~ Nov. 2014 & as of Fri. (yesterday); one is down -40% the other -35%. I also have 3 ETF s ( SGDM, RGLD, & SLW ) total ~ $20 – $25G down ~ 35%.) from Nov ’14 to Mar ’15. Ask them what they would do in my place. Ask them (each) to list 3 possible options, which would they choose & WHY ?? Please list 3 readers comments plus yours. My stated 3 options should be published a DAY LATER .
Tom Suyetsugu July 24, 2015
hey Larry:
Could you use my CASE example for discussion in your reader group. It’s about the precious metals bear market & how not keeping up w/ your computer could cost you a lot..
One week ago my losses were tolerable ( ~ 15 – 20% ). I invaders comments Plus yoursested ~ $20 G on 2 mutual funds ~ Nov. 2014 & as of Fri. (yesterday); one is down -40% the other -35%. I also have 3 ETF s ( SGDM, RGLD, & SLW ) total ~ $20 – $25G down ~ 35%.) from Nov ’14 to Mar ’15. Ask them what they would do in my place. Ask them (each) to list 3 possible options, which would they choose & WHY ?? Please list 3 readers comme
denis stay July 24, 2015
Hi Larry!
I read every word of every report you send me. I can’t say that about anybody else.
Thank you!! denis stay
Dave July 24, 2015
Larry,
I looked back at all your newsletters and special reports from September and October 2011. You recommended to sell all stocks, EXCEPT gold and resource shares. Your claim of recommending the sale of all gold stocks in 2011 is fiction, not fact.
Beth S July 24, 2015
LARRY: Steve Suggerrand wrote that while foreign bank accounts ARE not ‘invisible’ due to FATCA, that Perth Mint certificates CAN be since the gold is not stored in a bank but in a vault and thus NOT reportable. Will you PLEASE investigate this possibiity’s pro and cons, which you do so well and therefore I have come to trust?
:
Bob July 24, 2015
Do you still favor IAG for one of your positions when you give the signal to purchase a position in gold?
Bob
Bob July 24, 2015
Is IAG favorable when Gold becomes a buy?
Jim E July 24, 2015
Larry;
My wife and I (both 66) own several rental properties. We intend to work indefinitely mostly because we enjoy it but also to maximize our income.
What do you think about buying raw land as a investment? With a deflationary environment will land appreciate or fall in value?
Many thanks. I got out of the mining shares on your recommendation and saved alot of money.
BFD July 24, 2015
Telling someone to mortgage their home to the hilt is worse than just irresponsible. It is imperative to understand a person’s complete financial picture, age and psyche prior to making any recommendation of this magnitude. This guy is not only a fool, he is a dangerous fool!
were July 24, 2015
I truly can’t believe Larry wrote that. Someone must have punked him.
BFD July 24, 2015
Morals & ethics are not a part of his vocabulary.
David Foster July 24, 2015
Larry,
In your July Real Wealth report, page 2, your gold chart seems to be out of sync with to-days price! Price now is much lower, does this mean we could see a very sizable bounce in early August and followed by a drop to 1100. level. We then see a severe bounce to above 1200 by end of Sept. , scarey!! then a magnificent drop in November. Will you be adjusting your call (PUTS) to your subscribers?
Louise Mapstone July 24, 2015
If the government may stop paying Social Security, would it be wise to buy some immediate annuities (from different issuers to spread the risk) ti replace part or all of the income?
Bill H July 24, 2015
I have to wonder if the US dollar goes down and some investors that have been buying silver and gold as a safe haven or hedge ,what type of currency is going to be used as a purchasing medium that these people could feel safe cashing their hard assets in foror do they just keep it to barter with?
b July 24, 2015
OH by the way how must gold did JP MORGAN just buy four weeks ago.ha ha ha ha …
b July 24, 2015
All the big monies went in to ETF gold fund in the last bull run in gold & silver not in the miners.Go back and look at Gold corp price at $650 GOLD and look at $ 1900 gold the money was not there more money was made on $250 – 650 on the share price from 1999-2005..All the big money to ETF…….. THE UP SIDE WILL BE BIG …
Kirk July 24, 2015
It seems inevitable that all the QE done in Europe and US will ultimately undermine the euro and the dollar. I think we are already seeing the impact on the euro but the dollar remains strong because it is the ‘best house in a really bad neighborhood’. Will this change or will the dollar continue to stay strong relative to other currencies?
Roger July 24, 2015
Larry you predict that the Euro is doomed which I agree with and have said this from the beginning. If as you say, in the aftermath, European stocks will tank will there not be a number of good stocks which have a high level of exports to the USA and Asia that will profit and grow?
Ron July 24, 2015
Hi Guys…
Here is my 2 Cents worth..
Gold seems to have risen as the World could afford to pay more for it after the DOT-Com bubble…. Richer People were told to diversify to protect their gains
so they bought Gold, Apple, Netflix, Price Line Dot Com, PetroBras, or they started a New Company like TESLA.. The secret was to do what the Federal Politicians were doing or would be doing soon as they chose the Winners.
I did not make the following up:
If the coming trend is to Depopulate the World because “People are the Problem”
and “Global Warming is the Cancer that must be treated”.. then WHICH Suckers will be
there to buy the Gold at the Wrong time, so that the Wise Guys can Sell when they
decide to take their profits?
When we get advice here… we may believe that we are on the Winning side.. and that may be true.. but the Smart Money has already taken their position to profit
from what we will do. We just have to get OFF the Ride before they Sell and cause
a correction.. Don’t be greedy… Look at what happened to Apple, even though they had good Financial statements.
I am finished now.
Good luck to all.
Ron
Cuyler Salyer July 24, 2015
Hi Larry;
Really impressed with your 3 day Teleconference on “Convergence”. For the first time in the last 2-3 years some of the saviest prognostications, that seemed contradictory makes sense – finally! For instance how could we in the rising interest rate environment (caused by fear of return OF Capital rather than On Capital), could we have a declining Stock Market (initially in USA) but a rise in Home Values? How could the $USD still keep rising in value as the Economy continues to tank in the USA? And, with Capital Flight how could Gold diminish in value (initially). All very confusing things to ponder – but like I said you put it all toghether for us, and I think things will all work out as you said.
But what about the War Cycle that you say will peak around 2019? You haven’t explained yet how US Federal Workers and Govt. Contractors will be loosing their jobss all the while we’re ramping up for WWIII? I have no doubt you can explain it super clear and put my mind at ease. I have family members, I worry about. Me (no) I’m retired in Mexico. Actually as the “Worlds Least Cost Manufacturing Country”, I think Mexico will fare a lot better than USA. Getting cheaper by the month as the $USD keeps increasing in value. Any thoughts on “running the course” til 2015 in Mexico?
Ivor Lindores July 24, 2015
Hi Larry: thanks for all of your good advice. As for gold, I’m all the way at present, however, I’m looking to buy at around $950 an once. How would you rate that price? Thanks for your answer.
Ben Edem July 23, 2015
Larry– You surprised me today with the idea that it made sense to mortgage one’s house and invest the funds for both greater return and as protection against government confiscation. The conventional wisdom I thought was to get out of debt (yes, I know mortgages can be “good debt”). Also, conventional wisdom has been that real estate is an unlikely target of confiscation by governments. Could you elaborate on these points?
r July 23, 2015
when mining stks bottom, how and in what should we invest??
Jim July 23, 2015
Sources which have been reliable In the past tell me oil may be poised for a rebound sooner than many people think. Things have been very quiet on the shale oil front with the belief being they were coping with lower prices with increased efficiency and lower costs. While there is some truth in this the real reason for this is the extensive hedging most of the companies locked in when oil was over $100 a barrel. These hedges are expiring now which will quickly negatively impact the bottom line for many shale producers. They will have much less cash for interest, principal payments, and drilling costs. This coupled with the rapid depletion rate of these wells could cause a rather rapid fall in production numbers. They also tell me actual Saudi exports actually dropped in June as 60 cent domestic gas prices have caused local consumption to almost double. It might not be enough to halt oil’s current slide immediately, but I would be very cautious about shorting it. Jim
Jim July 23, 2015
Well said!
Richard L. Swanson SR. July 23, 2015
i owned my home free and clear. i thought Something was about to happen. so i sold my home. and now i am setting on a lot of cash. i put most all of it in Chase Bank. i put most in a gauranteed interest(very small) i put some in a checking account, and some in a savings account. i also am with Bank Of America for a small checking account, which i use to live on. i don’t do much of anything with my Chase accounts, but i worry about what’s going on. what should i do?
Ron July 24, 2015
Hi Richard,
Would it not be a better idea to actually buy the Bank Stock if you like the Bank
that much?
Then you could sell some of the Shares when the price was up… or buy more
when the prices were down..
Ron
karey/canada July 23, 2015
Larry…
whats your take on all these different articles i have been seeing regarding going electronic….Obama i understand is trying for setup by the end of the year. What do you think then will happen to the paper currency?………..elimination???
karey
jim vishnefske July 23, 2015
Larry, Although I agree with what you have projected. The challenge is as a business owner my dilemma is our sales in our hot tub / spa business is almost double over last year. The pullback will no doubt have an effect of future sales and wondering will the signs be obvious enough to alert me if I should cut back inventory. Or will it be subtle? Thanks for your great incites.
Joyce July 23, 2015
So you think physical gold is not a buy until somewhere under $1000? Just checking.
Scott July 23, 2015
In my opinion the safest bet at the moment is 100% cash in a bank account, a large megabank such as Wells Fargo,etc. Put $10,000.00 cash in a safe deposit box at a small local bank for quick access. $2,000.00 under the mattress. Stay out of rental property unless you find a home worth $200,000 selling for $80,000.00.
Trade in and out of the market if you must. Any gains over the next 2 years isn’t worth the risk.
Laugh if you must but in July 2007 we followed the above advice. We traded in and out of the market from 2010 through the present. Another market crash is in the making. There just isn’t that much growth in the U.S. in the near/far out future. Who ever heard of a company borrowing money to buy back shares, just crazy.
The World economies and Governments are in deep trouble.
I keep a pulse on the market every day. In April 2015 played the oil stocks, Cleared 10% on most trades, in and out in approx 30days.
Hope the market proves me wrong.
Mike June 4, 2016
That’s the worst thing you can do…What good is 10,000 in the bank if it only buys you a few loafs of bread. Gold hasn’t gone up or down through the years, it’s purchasing power has remained constant. The dollar has gone up and down because it’s manipulated one way or the other.
Cordell Preston July 23, 2015
Hi. Larry! In 2011 at the height of the gold bull, a single share of “NUGT” was over $2,000! Today a share of “NUGT” is about $3.40. If I just invested $5,000 in “NUGT” today and gold simple made it back to the high it made in 2011, I would have about $3 million dollars!! By doing that, I wouldn’t even have to worry about picking the right gold miner and it would be such a small investment, or Is there something I don’t know? Please, advise! Thank you.
Mike June 4, 2016
NUGT has done a reverse split many times I would think since 2011. So you can’t just go by the face value price from then til now…you’d have to do some homework to figure it out. 🙂
abe July 23, 2015
you mentioned Treasury bill money market to hold cash . Is WHOSX in this category
Mary H. Powell July 23, 2015
Q.: where does one find a money market fund that invests exclusively in Treasury Bills so you can safely store some USD there? Thank you.
Charlie July 23, 2015
Scotti was right on. Last year, all we heard was that gold and silver were going straight up.
Mary Lou July 23, 2015
We are wondering what your take is on Canada? Are we likely to hit the bottom in 2017 along with the U.S., or sooner. We followed your advice quite a while ago and got out of bonds. Made lots of money on your past recommendations in gold. Thank you.
Donald July 23, 2015
Per your forecasts in RWR, I have been waiting patiently 2 years for the stock correction to arrive & it has NOT happened. Yesterday, in the CONVERGENCE webinar, you stated the year 2017 would start to see a stock crash. How does that fit in with your Dow 31,000 forecast ? Perhaps the other reader’s observation that the Armstrong cycle can INVERT in October 2015 is correct & the Dow closes above Dow 18,500 breakout point & keeps going into 2017 to 31,000. Please clarify.
Bill July 23, 2015
Larry You did tell us to sell but then you told us to backup the truck and then you said to sell. What happened back then? Bill
Bill July 23, 2015
You say to dump government bonds. Does that include Savings Bonds EE that I accumulated while working? They are pulling in 4% interest.
ian July 23, 2015
Larry
Are you just addressing Americans here? I notice that the stocks you mention are all US. I live in Australia where gold stocks have done very nicely since around November thanks to a falling Aus dollar. Gold is up substantially over the last twelve months for Aussies, it is also up for Europeans, Japanese etc. What’s your take on the reciprocal factor? (ie currencies other than the US$ that are weakening). What will happen to gold stocks in these countries?
William Maynard July 23, 2015
Hi Larry!
Just as the 54-year Economic Long Wave is controlled by Neptune in a zodiacal earth sign (Taurus, Virgo and Capricorn, as vividly depicted in my 2008 book Universal Numbers and the Number 9 Destiny of Humankind—Amazon), the 54-year Long War Cycle (3 times the 18-year Short War Cycle) also is engendered by Neptune in a zodiacal water sign (Cancer, Scorpio and Pisces). Ominously, Neptune is transiting the spiritual planet of Pisces now until 2025! As dramatically depicted in the 30-year seasonal gold chart, planetary influences indicate the specific ups and downs, and the Cancer-Leo effect is the predominant reason for the annual bottoming of gold in July and early August, with early August being the best annual period to accumulate the PMs. Moreover, On August 11 (until 9/9/2016!), Expansive Jupiter will begin its transit of Virgo, and this planetary influence should drive the prices/values of gold and silver to unprecedented heights!!!
Howard July 23, 2015
William
I think you have nailed it.
ian July 23, 2015
I agree ahmed.
Jay July 23, 2015
Larry, i agree with you that USD is going to shoot up by October this year. All other assets like gold,silver,bonds, will go down and touch their bottoms. Does it also imply that Stocks in Emerging Markets especially India and China will fall. Simultaneously This also implies that US STOCKS WILL FALL when the USD Index crosses 102.
Correct me but After the USD has peaked, the assets to shoot up will be US stocks, gold and Emerging Markets.
Is it going to be as simple as that?
Robert W Johnson July 23, 2015
I rolled my IRA’s over to a broker & bought stocks with it. You said the Government would go after our IRA’s can they touch it if that money is in stocks? Robert Johnson
Jim July 23, 2015
As I understand it, the Government will “protect” our investments by making us buy “safe” Treasuries. Jim
Ron July 24, 2015
Hi Robert,
What will happen to your stocks if the Government Nationalizes your Company ?
You could have been a GM Bond Holder back in 2006 How safe was that?
Ron
Tim July 23, 2015
Regarding Reader Barbara’s question and your response below, what would happen to one’s mortgage in a U.S.$ crash and why would it not be better for them to sell now and use the equity to buy out-right? Thank you; Tim
Reader Barbara writes:
“1) Is it wise to own a home free and clear or should one keep a substantial mortgage in effect so the government won’t steal it from them?
My response: Depending upon your age and your income prospects, actually, the smart thing to do is to borrow as much money as you can against your home, for the reason you cited, but also because mortgage rates will never again be this low in your lifetime, and as long as you are judicious with those funds, you can get returns elsewhere.
Charlotte July 23, 2015
Today I read on Martin Armstrong’s blog that gold could go to $243 per ounce because of the cashless system that the Powers that be want and are working towards. What do you think about that?
James Donohue July 23, 2015
Not too long ago I read where Gold is going to 6000 but the writer did not say when. I am glad I did not buy any at 1900 even though I am quite sure it will eventually reach that point or beyond. When the Government can’t print any more dollars and our creditors demand to be paid in trillions, at that point gold will be a huge asset; but when is the question?
e
Rob July 24, 2015
Dollar cost averages says to take a chunk of your cash and incrementally invest over several months. Right now I would say it’s never to early to invest in gold and silver. Maybe 10 to 20% of your holdings. We really haven’t seen silver prices like this until just before the 08 crisis. And P.S. I’m not talking about holding paper in these assets. I’m talking about delivery!!
julian July 23, 2015
Larry – I think your three video presentations have been excellent and by and large you certainly appear to be in the top league of U.S. if not World Authorities on gold and silver of which Weiss Research should be proud . However I am now going to take you down a bit ( ! ) because we can all get a little over confident at times . In Today`s Afternoon Edition you say ” Back in late September / early October 2011 ,,, I told everyone I could to get the heck out of mining shares “. I would like to remind you that a year or so ago you made a special one off on line presentation with Dr. Weiss drawing our attention to the forthcoming boom in gold and silver . Indeed when pressed by the Doctor for a one off hot tip you recommended IAG Iamgoldcorp . I bought and as a result , Larry , I am now a StUckholder ( Yes , deliberate misspelling ) bearing a considerable loss which I hope by November may start to turn around .
were July 23, 2015
Yes. Very good point. There are a group of us that draw attention to Larry’s actual record in every weekly column he writes. He continually has amnesia when it comes to his past performance.
Russ K. July 23, 2015
I am watching the two ETFs JNUG and NUGT. Could these be a big profit vehicle down the road once the miners bottom? How about call options on these again afte the bottom and a turn around begins with the miners?
George Iwaskow July 23, 2015
I read in a recent CRUX article that late Oct 2015 the IMF will make a major announcement regarding a World currency change. Specifically the World will be going from 7 Major Trading Currencies to 8. The new addition is China and their Yuan. Currently the U.S. controls some 60% the trading currencies, but it is anticipated that a significant percentage will shift to the Yuan. The net result will be huge changes and impacts on financial and investing markets. Can you confirm if this is the case and if so, can you advise your readers of the investing opportunities and areas of caution to avoid. In general how should we react. Thank you—-George I.
howard July 25, 2015
George: Nothing will happen after October 2015 even if IMF announces an addition of yuan as one of the reserve currencies. The application for yuan to become one of the reserve currencies has not been approved yet. There is a sticking point in the process of evaluating whether or not to allow yuan to become one, i.e., transparency. I hope you do not believe in those doomsayers’ comments. there are lot of noise in the investment community. Remember the formation of AIIB? Does it affect IMF and World Bank? The China-sponsored bank was created for several reasons. One of them, just one of them, is to show China’s dissatisfaction with her 4% voting right at IMF. As to investing in gold, pay attention to geopolitical events, the strength of USD, inflation rate at home, the possibility of recession, the stock market cycle, to name a few. When the market is on an upswing, gold should go nowhere but down. When the market peaks and starts to go downhill, gold will do well. Howard, Ph.D, economist.
Kenneth Harmon July 23, 2015
Larry,
I listened to your three day part presentation with great interest (it was very well done). However, before anybody “bets the farm” on what you (and Martin Armstrong) are saying and in Martin’s case he has been talking about this for decades now, you have to do a better job of discussing how the 4 phases of the Cycle could be disrupted or distorted. For example, Martin Armstrong has mentioned the potential of a Cycle inversion in October 2015 and we won’t know if this is going to occur until October 2015-early 2016. There is also the major issue that both you and Martin Armstrong have identified as a potential “game-changer” and this is War and the War Cycle. Your basic theme is that of scared Capital flow into the U.S. between now and 2017 which in turn elevates most U.S. Markets as well as Real Estate, etc, etc. So what happens if there is another major Terrorist Attack on the U.S. within the next ~12 months or some other major disruptive event which negates your “Economy First” driven narrative as America as the last man standing “Safe Haven.. I am not at all doubting the Cycle itself, but please discuss what could make it roll out differently and disrupt the 4 phases. Finally the peak may not be 2020, but 2021 according to Armstrong’s latest calculations and he also argues that ReaL Estate will go down after October 2015 and through 2032.
Thank You
Kenneth Harmon
Thank You
Kenneth Harmon
Jim July 23, 2015
The Freemasons say 2022.
Jamie July 23, 2015
How do my wife and I protect our IRA’S from government confiscation ?
nick July 23, 2015
Larry, I have no retirement except for social security( $2000). I own a home free and clear that could net me about 280,000 dollars. I own another property valued at about 580,000 that has about 250,000 equity. My wife works and will for another 7 years. (“she is young”) I put my Mom In the first house and collect no rent, but could get about 1500 per month. My savings are low right now but I plan to get something for extra money. What would you do if for sure all hell is going to break loose. If we lost our income it may be too late to act. What do you think?
Gerald Lewis July 23, 2015
During the video you quickly mentioned potential confiscation of IRAs/Roth and other types of retirement accounts. If these accounts own equities, how does potential confiscation work? Does the Gov’t simply take over the accounts? Also which is more vulnerable to confiscation, Roth or Regular IRA?
Rob July 23, 2015
Here is what is apparent to me through all the stuff that I read. Gold and Silver is the way to go. Look if the big boys want to buy and hoard thousands of tons of the stuff they need to push the price down…which is exactly what they are doing. If you want the price to go through the roof you need to put miners out of business or at least make the price lower than what it costs to get it out of the ground thus slowing the supply. I will have to say that if you are not in gold and silver to the tune of 15% to 20% of your liquid cash, you are crazy. I’m talking about physical bars…in your hand. Not this B.S, paper they are selling on Wall Street. I firmly believe that if only 2% of the holders of paper took delivery there would be no more physical silver or gold to ship. This stuff is easily researched.
You want a comment on a new “One World” currency? Just look at who is buying the gold…and it isn’t America!! Our money is backed by war and oil, both of which have no stability by nature.
George July 24, 2015
Rob…question for you….if I own physical gold and the economy including the dollar crashes..what do you do with gold. If I go to the grocery with a gold dollar coin it will only buy $1 worth of groceries. Will banks redeem gold for dollars?
Vern July 23, 2015
I followed your recommendation to get out of gold stocks. I will be watching for your go-ahead to get back in and ride the rocket to the top.
john July 23, 2015
How low does JNUG need to go before I buy and hold. I had once said if it ever got to $10.00 I would jump in. NOT now!
Ray July 25, 2015
It’s hard to pick the bottom, you’ll be a great trader if you can stay within the trend 60% of the time. Stop second guess yourself and you won’t regret it. It wasn’t’t too long ago when I was in the same position considering to buy Tesla stock at $27 – missed that boat.
G13Man July 23, 2015
A suspected meth lab blew up at the National Institute of Standards & Technology, a federal research center near Washington, D.C. last week.
This would explain the way congress acts ! Of course they are already addicted ! So they must all be replaced !
Michael July 23, 2015
I agree, the flogging of the miners has som time to run yet. The bottom will be determined by the possible rate hike by the FED (Dec. 2015?).
At the moment I have shorted GDX and will cash in around 12.25.
The great question is, who to invest in come Xmas?
Keep up Your good work
Mike
Bob July 23, 2015
Re Reader Barbara’s second question re “one world currency”, you did not respond. Any comments?
Al hall- in SC July 23, 2015
Barb; not sure if you’ll see this, BUT…. I havean inside elite source that has told me directly – Oct 20th, 2015 IMF will and this he said was in cement- will introduce a new one world currency. And that the dollar will take a 60% haircut.
he side buy gold and silver now at any price- when it bottoms out as larry has said their won’t be any for the average person. Whe it rises- it will explode and he said gold at $20,000/oz is on the table and silver at $500/oz. I’min 98% – he is not wrong!
Heidi July 24, 2015
Al hall Are you nuts ? Where did you read this gold to $ 20,000 / Silver to $ 500 ? What kind of crap are you listening too ? That is not from Larry and there won’t be hyperinflation either . Unless you still have 50 yrs. to invest – don’t believe b.s. like that
Ray July 25, 2015
You’re gonna to loose your shirt, pants, underwear, wife, cat, dog and mama. You are one crazy dude to listen AND believe such nonsense!
Peter Vella July 25, 2015
Believe it when I see it!
Although I sure do hope I see it!
Fingers crossed!
Dave Miller July 23, 2015
Larry, I not only listened to your three part presentation, ( great ) but I’m betting the farm on your forecasts. I’m running dangerously low on my retirement funds, ( I’m 75 years young ), but trying to save a reasonable amount to invest in issues like jung and nugt and call options on GDX and GDXJ. At this point in time would you ‘suggest’ that November may be a good time to take the plunge ??
john July 23, 2015
Dave, I’m just like you, only difference is I’m 77. I’m hoping to load up on jnug soon for the long haul. Good luck.
Heidi July 24, 2015
john good idea for JNUG but if you do it too early it will kill you -you need to have that timing right .