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Once the pullback in the broad stock indices is over (more on that in a minute) — the Dow Jones Industrials will lead the way higher and catapult to 31,000 over the next two years.
What? Have I lost my mind? Or am I just some perennial stock market bull?
Neither is true. Quite the contrary, I’m simply one of the very few analysts who understands the forces that are building to send the Dow rocketing higher.
Moreover, I am not some perennial stock market bull. I foretold of the 1987 stock market crash months ahead of time. I forecast the 1999-2000 top in the Nasdaq and the Dow.
I predicted the peak in the markets in 2007 … and the stock market bottom in 2009.
If I didn’t know better, I’d throw my hat in the ring with all those pundits out there who say the economy is not strong enough, so the Dow must crash.
BUT, I do KNOW better. The fact of the matter is that the Dow is going to reach 31,000 over the next two years …
NOT IN SPITE of political dysfunction in Washington …
NOT IN SPITE of the mess in Europe and Japan …
NOT IN SPITE of ongoing currency and trade wars …
NOT IN SPITE of gargantuan federal debts …
But BECAUSE OF THEM.
I know better because for nearly 40 years, I’ve traveled the world and studied every major market and economic system on the planet. I have charted how they interact and influence each other. How major economic cycles expand and contract and sometimes converge.
And the fact of the matter is this: If you understand the way capital flows like a powerful undercurrent through the world — and if you understand the significance of what happens when interest rates start rising …
Which they are already starting to do despite the Fed’s decision last week — then I promise, you will be well-positioned to make a fortune over the next few years as most U.S. stocks catapult higher.
Here is what you need to know to take advantage of it:
First, rising interest rates will be one of the major reasons the Dow and other broad market indices explode higher. To the contrary of many of the best minds on — and off — Wall Street, when the Fed raises its official interest rate, that’s no reason at all to be worried about the stock market, and in fact, the opposite is true: Rising interest rates will fuel stocks much, much higher.
How so? There are three chief reasons.
1. Rising interest rates are a sign that there is rising demand for money and credit. That’s a positive.
2. Rising interest rates are also a sign that bond values are going to be heading down, and quite dramatically. As investors leave the bond market, they will have to put their money to work in other asset classes.
Commodities will eventually be a recipient of that capital flow out of bonds.
But the biggest asset class that will experience massive capital inflows from plunging bond prices will be none other than the stock market. It’s the only market that can handle the depth and liquidity of trillions of dollars of capital that needs to be invested.
And it won’t just be capital flowing out of U.S. sovereign bonds. There will be trillions more flowing out of European sovereign debt when the next shoe drops in Europe, and that isn’t too far off.
3. Unlike when interest rates rise solely due to a healthy growing economy, this time around rates will rise because of a crisis in confidence in government.
Sounds bad, right? After all, if governments are collapsing and rates are rising as a result, stocks must crash too, right?
Wrong. Dead wrong. Which brings me to my next major reason why the Dow will explode to 31,000 over the next two years …
Second, collapsing governments in Europe, Japan and the United States will be just about the best thing that could happen for the U.S. stock market.
I know what you’re thinking: That’s a pretty bold, almost unbelievable statement. Larry has definitely lost his marbles.
But mark my words: As Western governments and their largely socialist, huge entitlement programs shrink and even go bust, the private sector will become the recipient of a tsunami of cash otherwise eaten up by the public sector, and that will send stocks into an explosive move higher.
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| When the banking system crashes again, stocks will be deemed to be a safer place to put your money than just about anything else. |
There’s more. As Western governments teeter and the banking system crashes again — and it will — stocks will be deemed to be a safer place to put your money than just about anything else.
After all, just look at the Cyprus confiscation of bank depositor money in 2013. Banks will not be bailed out in the next crisis, and depositors everywhere will be bailed in.
Why keep your money in a bank then, when there’s no safety to be found and instead, large amounts of your capital will be deemed to be bank creditor funds?!
Want proof of all the above? Just look at the
1932-1937 time period and what most analysts are
NOT telling you about the Great Depression!
Back then, U.S. and European economies were plummeting in a depression. Unemployment continued to soar. And interest rates began to climb for the very same reasons I just cited: because 17 nations in Europe were going bankrupt, defaulting on their sovereign bonds.
And though the U.S. was the world’s creditor then, its bond markets also came under suspicion. Banks were folding left and right in Europe and the U.S.
Tens of billions of dollars fled the sovereign bond markets — and the banking system — and went directly into U.S. stock markets.
Despite the worsening global economy, the Dow Jones Industrials soared three hundred and eighty-two percent from a low of 40.56 in July 1932 to a high of 195.59 in March 1937.
All in the middle of the worst depression in our nation’s history!
And all of my indictors and studies tell me that the Dow’s 2009 crash low of 6,495 is tantamount to the 1929 crash low in the Dow.
And a similar 382 percent gain from that low would put the Dow Industrials just north of 31,000!
Thing is, Dow 31,000 is my minimum target. Why?
Because unlike the 1932-1937 period when it was primarily European governments and banking systems that were going down the drain …
This time around the governments and banking systems of the U.S. and Japan will also collapse, adding fuel to the fire as capital stampedes away from the public sector and banks in droves … and into the welcoming arms of commodities and stocks.
What about the correction we’re now seeing in the stock market, and where do the commodity markets stand right now as well?
The pullback you’re seeing in the Dow is just getting started. It was way overdue and it will end up merely being a healthy correction — the one I have been looking for.
The maximum downside in the Dow, according to my models, is roughly 13,900.
If it gets that low, be ready to back up the truck.
Commodities are now in the final phase of their correction. We should see final bottoms come into play in the next few months.
Best wishes, and stay tuned,
Larry
a December 12, 2015
hmm i wonder how many times he went to the Martin Armstrong conferences
william ambs October 1, 2015
Are brokerage accounts any safer than banks to hold cash?
$1,000 gold September 28, 2015
i started buying back into the market today. any of you pussies got the balls to follow me?
$1000 gold September 29, 2015
i’m a troll. hear me whimper
faker September 29, 2015
don’t feed the troll. go away were. we know who you are.
mephisto September 29, 2015
This guy is a hoot. He’s gone totally fruit loops and full on conspiracy.
Heidi September 28, 2015
Larry wrote in Sept. 2015 :
DOW to nosedive into Oct. 21st 2015 to 13,937
DOW is at 16,070 today – the DOW will not drop by 2100 pts. in 30 days
mephisto September 29, 2015
you sound like a troll to me.
faker September 27, 2015
the market is in a corrections and gold can’t even muster a rally above it’s descending trend line. pitiful gold. pitiful armstrong too.
Tom September 27, 2015
Hey guys
Give us all a reason to believe your Doom and Gloom scenario “or”
your talk should just get up and walk
$1000 gold says ” i said it first. i said it often. i’m right.”
I have never read where he said anything of the kind
$1000 gold September 27, 2015
read my name. what does it mean?
Tom September 27, 2015
I was talking about the post George Armstrong did “just above” that you commented on.
” Dow should have a 50 to 70 percent crash in the near future.”
My god man
$1,000 gold September 28, 2015
it means you’re like heide, were, bfd, manny, and the other monikers you use. i could make more money closing my eyes and picking my stocks at random.
Tom September 28, 2015
No idea what the *^$# your talking about, so I assume you are officially off the rails
$1,000 gold September 29, 2015
ya, that’s a sure sign, bfd … i mean tom.
hermes23 September 27, 2015
Interesting
Hard to read all the crap comments.
The best investor’s of all time never write stories of their greatness, their greatness is written by others.
Tudor Jones, Stan Druckenmiller, Soros,
It’s time in the market – It’s good analysis – Many answer. Do your Homework.
Sites like this make for interesting Reading – Help with building a view – Even if it’s a very negative view – A view that differ’s from all the positive the sky is forever blue analysis.
These sites need to make money and they are selling advise’s – IF you really need this advise then go get a real broker he is going to give you the same bull crap as these guys.
Mitch September 26, 2015
Oct 7,2015 “all hell breaksloose”. We shall see Larry
George Armstrong September 26, 2015
James Dale Davidson, another market watcher whom I also respect, states several reasons why the Dow should have a 50 to 70 percent crash in the near future.
Among his reasons is this. Whenever in the past, the margin debt on the NYSE has been as high as it is now, the market experienced a drop of 50 or more percent. Look out below!
$1000 gold September 26, 2015
too late. i said it first. i said it often. i’m right.
n samraj September 26, 2015
S&P WILL TOUCH 3500 BY MAY’17. NOTE THIS DOWN AND CHECK THEREABOUTS
Carray70 September 26, 2015
The whole world’s financial system is a house of cards. When Germany propped up a Greek economy that has a GDP the size of Connecticut, you know that it is all Monopoly money and worth just about the same. These so called gurus just keep kicking the can down the road now that can is filled with the cement of unpayable debt and all we get for it is a stubbed and broken toe. The piper wants to be paid and won’t be denied this time. You can run but there is nowhere to hide.
Dean September 26, 2015
Are there government goons trolls on here?
ed September 26, 2015
Larry: ok, I’ll accept your 31,000 DOW target, My question is if it’s due to inflow of funds to US markets, are you suggesting a multiple expansion or a 100% increase in corporate earnings? Multiple expansion from 20+- to 40?
$1,000 gold September 26, 2015
bad news used to be good for the markets. bad news is now bad news for the markets. what does it mean? understand this and you will understand what’s next for the markets.
$1,000 gold September 26, 2015
that’s what i thought, you don’t know jacksh*t. maybe you should go hang out at the disney website with the other children.
$1000 gold September 25, 2015
i’m the gizly beer. hear me peeppeepacheap
$1000 gold September 25, 2015
goldilocks can’t compare to meeeeee. i’m the real deal
$1000 gold September 25, 2015
here i am. don’t i sound smart. i’m as good as larry. everyone listen to meeeeeeee
$1000 gold September 25, 2015
i’m the diarrhea of this website. what does it mean?
$1,000 gold September 25, 2015
you’re the brains of the family. what’s it mean?
$1,000 gold September 25, 2015
bad news is no longer good for the market. bad news is now bad news for the market. figure it out, if you can.
$1,000 gold September 25, 2015
i imagine these guys have completely blown out their trading accounts and are looking for someone to blame.
$1,000 gold September 25, 2015
i’d love to see the portfolios of heide, were, manny and bdf. is the top in yet?
Why only 31000? September 25, 2015
Larry, what medicine are you taking? Why only 31000 on DOW?
$1,000 gold September 25, 2015
ask heide. he’s the brains of the family here.
Tom September 24, 2015
Making money in the Gold sector………….Ya baby…….
Larry’s Pal, “MA” sure didn’t help me out any…..Just when I thought I found a wizard, his crystal ball broke.
I feel so sorry for all the followers of these types.
It seems there are many here
Perhaps I will start a financial newsletter business.
$1,000 gold September 24, 2015
i go to financial sites like this to learn. i’ve been following larry for years. if i learn even just one thing, it’s worthwhile. you don’t learn by making money, you learn by losing money. it’s a mistake you’ll never make that mistake. when i lose money, i’m paying to learn, just like college. so the money you lost following larry was well spent.
$1000 gold September 24, 2015
oh, and another thing. make sure you change your strategy every month. you want to lose the most you can. that way you learns really lots
$1,000 gold September 25, 2015
warren buffett bought ibm, chv, xom, psx, … all stupid, stupid, buys. covered his butt on chv at a huge loss. covered his butt on xom at break even. covered his butt on psx at a slight profit. stuck with ibm for the long haul. it’s not about making a mistake, it’s about how you handle the mistakes you make. letting someone else tell you how to invest and then blaming it on them when they’re wrong IS the mistake.
$1,000 gold September 24, 2015
bad news used to be good for the markets. finally, bad news is bad for the markets. you guys are all missing the boat. you don’t get it, do you? i’m just a loser. don’t listen to me. i have no idea how to make money. heide is the smart one here.
Heidi September 23, 2015
Michael
You are not an gold expert and no expert in Markets either – so leave the thinking to others .
Michael September 23, 2015
I think Dow is going lower than 6000 this time (not 2 years later). It’s very possible the Dow (even SPX) is at the wave E of Elliot wave correction (starting from 2000-2002 down wave as wave A, ABCDE, E being the last one but often undershoot below the previous lows). Something may still happen if Fed continues to meddle with the market but we can not rule out the high possibility of wave E. On the other hand, China is going down likely and they have been leading the way down recently (crash) just like they lead everyone down in 2008 crash. I agree that U.S. will be at the best shape among all countries when this downturn hits, but we are going down with them and we should not see new highs on the Dow for the next 5 years. For Gold, be honest I am confused, downturn will drag Gold down but government debt bubble and geo-political conflicts probably will drive the price higher. Two things I know for sure are that Gold has limited supply (not like paper money) and I am not a Gold expert.
Steve September 23, 2015
Larryspeak comes across as being in unstable orbit.
First the economies round the world are slowing. Greatly.
Hence interest rates are falling.
So his entire premise is out of sorts.
Second, until the FED starts a massive QE4, quite the opposite is happening.
Indeed, markets are crashing.
No, we don’t charge for our advice — investable ideas — based on reality — not pipe dreams.
Will September 23, 2015
Larry:
First: Rising interest rates would need to be sustainable.
Second: Although huge entitlement programs may eventually go bust, Washington will do everything in its power to delay this until the November 2016 Election. There goes more than half of your two years.
Third: 1932 to 1937 is a five year period; not a two year period.
Fourth: As you say Larry, a lot more countries are involved now; so how will that make for a short two year turn around? And lastly……
Fifth: Shouldn’t we at this time be first preparing for the cleansing bath that will bring the Dow down to that “healthy correction” which could be as low as “13,900”?
Although the Dow probably will someday reach 31,000, your timing seems so unrealistic that you should not take credit for this happening in later years. That will be the longest two years in your life.
Robert P September 23, 2015
In 1999, after Greenspan’s “irrational exuberance” speech, AFTER he vowed that the Fed was going to work to “take the froth out of the market” and started raising rates, the stock market continued higher until the beginning of 2000.
Hear Larry for what he is saying….”The pullback you’re seeing in the Dow is just getting started.” BUT, as of now, Sept., 2015, the Fed has not even started raising rates yet.
I may be wrong, but I think we are in a 1998-type pullback….as for hitting Dow 31,000 in the next couple of years, dunno…?? Jury’s still out on that one!? BUT, I believe the old saying “Don’t fight the Fed” still applies. (Even if the Fed don’t seem to know what they’re doing!!)
jrj90620 September 23, 2015
Of course the Dow will hit 32,000,because it’s priced in Dollars,not money.So,as the Dollar crashes,everything priced in Dollars will appreciate,in Dollar terms.Money,gold,will rise too.The exact timing is the hard part,as Larry,who has predicted a bottom in precious metals prices,several times,over the past years,should know.
Puter September 26, 2015
I would agree completely with that.
If you look at stocks indices in any country that has suffered massive currency readjustments, you will find the indices reflect 4-5 times the original levels. India is a case in point and now you will find the same in Brazil. For example Gold in Brazil has shot up tremendously over the past few months in the local currency whereas it has dropped quite a bit in US dollar terms.
But the impression we get from Larry is that the Dow at 31,000 or 32,000 will be priced in today’s value not when the Dollar loses a great deal of value. If that were the case, I could confidently predict that the Dow could well go to 50,000 in the next 5 years!
Carman September 23, 2015
Even if you think that his reasons are sound nothing ever plays out exactly as predicted. To many variables in the world that can change everything
B.M. September 23, 2015
Two things will ruin any plans to make tons of money in the stock market going forward:
1. Laws already on books allowing Wall Street to severally penalize funds trying to leave a brokerage account, or Fed Gov’t preventing funds from exiting money market accounts during times of economic distress.
2. National governments controlling buying and selling of stocks when conditions favor a market crash. Try making money shorting Chinese stocks right now. You’ll get thrown into prison or worse. Will eventually be the same in USSA.
Geos September 23, 2015
What are you talking about Manny? You seem to have comprehension issues. No, every single call has not been perfect but he has consistently been bearish on PMs for the last 4 years when most others have been bullish. He is NOT long term negative; he’s consistently said gold is going north of $5k.
John T September 23, 2015
Geos – Larry has not been consistent at all. Look up Martin d. Weiss’s – 3 urgent, must see video clip, June 28, 2014, where Larry states he is 99.99% certain the bottom is in. Since then he is negative on gold and gold stocks. Manny is absolutely correct in Larry’s flip flop. Larry does not show you gold charts any more, and speaks with forked tongue.
Heidi September 23, 2015
Geos – Are we reading Larry all the time since the high ? It sounds like you have missed a lot of his issue’s . He has NOT been bearish for the last 4 yrs. – ask around – he switched back and forth – I know – I was here . But no- he is not long term negative .
And when Larry says GOLD IS GOING north of $ 5000 – ask him in what year –
ask him – ask him – ask him – ask him . Get the message ? Ask him !!!!! Only M.A. readers know when gold should hit $ 5000 . Way later than everybody expects .
$1000 gold September 26, 2015
i’m the king of this website. everyone listens to me. asta lavista, baby. i’ll always be back
Tiffany September 23, 2015
Heidi girl
I have a question for you
I took your advice and started reading the M. A. blog.
There is no mention of the gold forecast being pushed out into the future like you say.
There is a very recent update to the report. It maybe in there?
Even before the update, you have been saying the forecast has been pushed out into the future.
How did or do you know girl ?
Heidi September 23, 2015
Tiffany – did I say ” pushed out into the future ? ” Maybe I worded it differently ?
I think I was talking about Armstrong’s benchmark dates for the coming low in gold . No, you won’t find these dates on his website , These info were send per his $ 400 Pres. Metal Report from last Sept. 2014 …2014- not 2015 . I felt generous and supplied these dates here on the boards- but I paid for them .
But I achieved some good already – you are reading his website which is free for everybody and you will be better informed than you were before . Now tell me exactly where did I write ” gold forecast pushed out into the future ” ? Maybe it wasn’t even me ?
The Heidi girl …..lol
Tiffany September 23, 2015
Hey Heidi girl
My words
The jist was Oct-Nov 15 was out, as it was previously in. Sometime early next year that was out is now in
Is that about right
Heidi September 23, 2015
Tiffany
See , I knew I did not said like that. Yeah – it’s as close as it gets what you wrote . His 1st benchmark date was cancelled and his 2nd benchmark date is now in effect unless ………..rather not mention it what else could happen .
Hope it helps !
randy September 26, 2015
martin armstrong predicted dow 30,000 by 2015. he like everyone else has no idea about anything, period end of story. he also doesn’t understand that there are those who do plan out our future and that’s why you see ameriKans losing their freedom daily. when you speak to him please tell him russia NEVER collapsed.
$1000 gold September 26, 2015
i’m the king of this website. everyone listens to me. asta lavista, baby. i’ll always be back
Manny September 23, 2015
Guys, in June of 2013 Larry famously suggested we were so close to a bottom in the miners that he could almost taste it.
Then in 2014 he abruptly changed his tune and proclaimed that there was still a ways to go in the bottoming out process, BUT that he was still long term bullish on gold and precious metals.
For 2015 Larry has mostly been consistent in trumpeting the “bottom is not yet in” message. But then on Wednesday of last week (Sept 16) he suddenly shifted his take yet again and has now said that the long term outlook for metals is negative. I repeat: NEGATIVE.
That’s three years worth of chart and cycle “analysis” in a nutshell and three years worth of inconsistencies. I’m sure if we go back even further we can punch holes through Larry’s supposed sterling record as a metals market savant.
The bottom line is this: the Weiss Group is selling subscriptions and not sound (much less reasoned) financial advice. For all we know Larry is throwing chicken bones on a table or reading tea leaves to reach his “expert” conclusions. Don’t fall for it. Do your own homework.
As for me, I believe in the precious metals and will be looking to make opportunistic purchases in the future. Right now though I am dollar cost averaging to recover from Larry’s terrible advice.
Puter September 26, 2015
Larry has to be right some time. A stopped clock will show the correct time every 12 hours!
Larry pre-supposes that when there is a reset, the small percentage of funds that are not affected by counter-party claims all over the world will come back to the US. Maybe and maybe not.
Again, my feeling is that with the let down by fiat currencies, Gold will probably shoot up in value followed by Bonds so that interest rates can remain low to assist in the recovery. Stocks and Real Estate may probably remain in limbo for a while until such time that savings can be built up so the there is some basis for CAPEX growth which will ultimately assist the stock markets to rise.
This is not to say that some new stocks that promote new “world saving” technologies will remain stagnant. Such stocks will shoot up very rapidly.
But I do not share Larry’s enthusiasm about the DOW going to 31,000 in the next two years.
brian September 26, 2015
Larry is just another believer in American Exceptionalism .
There is no rational explanation how US stocks represent over 50% of the global market Cap when China has in some reports a higher GDP than the US .
The Fact that DOW has been the US barometer of Economic health is no longer true.
That is thanks to Bernanke’s flawed theory that the depression in the 30s was caused by the bottom falling out of the DOW which caused him and his friends at Goldman to arrange the so called Greenspan Put to drive the DOW and US stocks to nosebleed levels giving the impression of a “recovery”.
Anyone that has monitored USDEBTCLOCK.ORG as I have realises that there is no recovery when there are 13M more on foodstamps than in 2008 .
Also the big problem for the DOW is the same as the 1930s and 2008/9 , that is The large cap stocks in the DOW are dependent on the rest of the world for sales and earnings because they are multinationals , just as was proved true in the previous 2 crashes.
As the global depression takes hold those slumping sales will collapse the DOW
and anyone following Larry’s incorrect assumption will lose his shirt
Paul LePaul December 3, 2015
I am dollar-cost averaging as well, to make up for some bad ideas. Some of those ideas were mine, some were not. As for my own mistakes, oh well, we all make them. As for listening to others, shame on me. And a note to all: dollar-cost averaging still works!
Will September 23, 2015
Larry, I think you have the peddle to the medal with the Dow Jones reaching 31,000 in two years. That is an awful lot for resources and precious metals to carry on their back in such a short time.